Indonesia is getting major credit upgrades at a time when Western economies are getting downgrades. Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday returned the country to investment-grade level for the first time since the Asian financial crisis. The quest is not as simple, or as brutal, as it was under colonial rule. Now, helped by a global commodities boom, Indonesia is one of the fastest-growing countries in the G20, and could join Brazil, Russia, India and China -- the BRIC economies -- as the next emerging markets powerhouse.
An estimated 35 million of its population of million are now considered middle class. But it will be no help for private projects such as the Sumatra railway. Poor infrastructure is the biggest impediment to foreign direct investment and Yudhoyono hopes foreigners will pony up much of the money to improve it. But Indonesia, which has had a feisty democracy since the fall of long-time autocrat Suharto in , remains a stubbornly difficult country in which to do business, and Yudhoyono may find it easier to raise that kind of money than to spend it.
A Reuters examination of the railway project in Sumatra shows that investing in projects in the provinces has become much harder than during the Suharto dictatorship, when Indonesia was last rated investment grade. Since then, Indonesia has decentralized much of its power.
Now a myriad of local interests must be accommodated, inevitably causing delays. Investors in the project have had to pay off gangs, build swimming pools for the government, step around delicate religious sensibilities and try to overcome years of mistrust from locals, such as Sigurung in the village of Tanjung Raja Giham.
Sigurung is a year-old village elder. Like most Indonesians, he uses one name. Sigurung remembers how Dutch soldiers intimidated his grandparents, driving them off their land, halfway between the mine and port to build the old railway to the coal mine back in They shot some residents before forcibly relocating the rest. Sigurung is fine with the latest rail project -- as long as he gets paid for the land and his sons get jobs.
Otherwise, there will be trouble, he vows. Indonesia lags its Southeast Asian neighbors in building highways, ports and power plants. The project, which took six years just to get off the ground, will likely be delayed because of an issue with its coal license. Chinese investors face their own host of issues in increasing exposure to the railway. With its banks financing the project, and China Railway building it, Chinese industry is expecting a huge bump in coal imports: as much as half the increased coal output is slated to go to China.
The Chinese have helped fund and build infrastructure projects in resource-rich countries from Myanmar to Zambia. But Indonesia has nursed a deep distrust of communism since a bloody, failed coup in by a pro-Beijing communist party, and populist resentment over local ethnic Chinese wealth.
But with demand for investment growing, that may have begun to change. But he also acknowledged the challenges. Indonesian bureaucracy has a reputation among foreign investors for being obstructive and corrupt. Traditionally, games like Satta Matka are an activity where someone risks money or belongings, there is an element of randomness or chance involved and the purpose is to win.
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