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Is the current focus on austerity likely to bring about the desired result? There is no doubt that deleveraging has become necessary but the timing and method with which it is carried out can make all the difference between success and failure. Prior to that, Orphanides had a tense relationship with former finance ministers, the president and the ruling communist party Akel.
He also said he had faced repeated challenges to his authority as an independent official. Repeated attempts to convey this view to President Christofias failed, he said. He was succeeded by Panicos Demetriades, a professor of financial economics at the University of Leicester in Britain. This is a conservative estimate. Losses are expected to be much higher from defaults of private and corporate loans. It is not easy to lose so much money!
Many things must have gone wrong simultaneously. An investigation into the crisis is not for the settling of personal or political accounts. We are already witnessing the pass-the-blame game. Exchanges of unsubstantiated accusations never solve any real problem. On the contrary, they fester a confusing and confrontational environment that keeps us in the dark. International experiences from similar crises, and available information for our own banking system, point to a series of factors that could have contributed to the making of the crisis: 1.
Negligence or inability of the Boards of Directors of the banks in discharging their duties. Negligence of the Central Bank in fulfilling its supervisory role using all available supervisory instruments. Inadequacy of the supervisory framework that restricted the Central Bank from exercising effective supervision.
Negligence of the Government when taking political decisions at the European level for handling the Greek debt crisis. Adverse side effects on the banking system from government fiscal policy. It is said that complex systems fail in complex ways, and this is certainly true in the current crisis. We must look into banking corporate governance and supervisory practices, the methods and systems of risk management by banks, the reflexivity between the banking system and the financial strength of the Government.
And of course issues are raised about il legal practices and on what are considered ex ante reasonable management policies from commercial and central banks. That is, whether under the circumstances those in charge were following well accepted international professional norms in performing their duties.
To fully understand what happened and to avoid similar traps in the future we need careful and scientific investigation. The Commission members should be well established experts of international expertise and repute.
The Commission must be set up by Parliament to have legitimacy. If there is no legal framework for doing so, Parliament should create it through legislation. The problem we face is so big and its nature so unique, that if special legislation is needed Parliament should not hesitate to legislate. The Parliament of Iceland set high standards in There are many other experiences from which we can draw lessons.
Let us not ignore them Akerlof, G. Andrestinos N. Papadopoulos, Ambassador a. The one covers the negotiations on a variety of issues which contributed to the further enhancement of the Cyprus-Israeli relations. The other, far more important, is the geostrategic aspect of these relations, which is better understood, if we keep in mind that Cyprus is viewed by Israel as its bridge towards Europe.
Far-sighted politician as he is, the President of Israel Shimon Peres perceived it already since At the time, the then Foreign Minister of Cyprus Alecos Michaelides was trying to secure from the EU a date for the start of accession negotiations.
The assistance of Shimon Peres was prompt and immediate. This strategic viewpoint of the importance of Cyprus for the interests of Israel was espoused by Avigdor Lieberman who became the protagonist of closer relations between Cyprus and Israel.
His frequent visits to Cyprus testify to this fact. In this respect, it is noteworthy to mention that Lieberman and Markoulli discussed a proposal to set up a regional crisis handling force to deal at this stage with floods, earthquakes, and fires, which will involve Cyprus, Israel, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania. As a matter of fact, the heavenly-sent present of natural gas and hydrocarbons of our region brought Cyprus and Israel closer.
The negotiations on the shared development and exploitation of hydrocarbon reservoirs in the cross median line are in their final stage and soon is expected the signing of the relevant agreement. The agenda, apart the energy issues, included water management, double taxation and protection of investment.
These two issues will be discussed in detail during the forthcoming visit of the Israeli Finance Minister to Nicosia. In October , we have tried to answer the question whether there is a triangle Athens-Nicosia-Tel Aviv. At the time the conclusion of our analysis was that it is a matter of interpretation of the data deterioration of the relations between Turkey and Israel — deepening of the relations of Israel with Greece and Cyprus.
Today, if we take into account the visits of the President and Prime Minister of Israel to Cyprus, as well as the statement by the Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman that Cyprus-Israel relations were at their best stage ever, we venture to say that this triangle is a natum nascendi and is gaining momentum. Any person or company found in violation will be prosecuted and financial damages will be sought as this implies theft of the intellectual property rights of the publishers, their associates and contributing services or agencies.
Rarely has a leadership change in one EU member state created expectations of a real policy shift. Remarkably, a new European demos and public sphere are emerging from the economic crisis. Europeans are recognizing how interdependent they are. Peace, solidarity, and prosperity are not irreversible achievements; only 27 countries working together can guarantee them.
It should spell the end of a policy oriented exclusively towards austerity, which has paralyzed our economies and divided the EU. I am delighted that this message is increasingly echoed by the political mainstream, including most recently by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. Indeed, Europe needs a master plan to avoid a tailspin of recession, growing unemployment, and weakening banking systems.
A new master plan for growth would not be about printing money. Fiscal discipline remains essential, as are deep structural reforms. The growth pact can be properly financed by new sources of revenue, such as a financial-transaction tax and joint project bonds for infrastructure investment, or by curbing tax evasion and tax fraud and eliminating tax havens, as well as by more efficient and intelligent use of structural funds.
What is to be done? First, targeted investment should be given priority. The European Investment Bank would be a good vehicle — in addition to new project bonds — to boost spending on major infrastructure projects for example, in the energy sector. The EIB could be given significantly more resources to boost its loan programs. In the longer-term, we should revisit the idea of joint Eurobonds. Channeling EU structural funds towards innovation is essential, given that spending on research and development is alarmingly low compared to our global partners.
Fundamental reform of the Common Agricultural Policy should not remain a taboo. Indeed, the CAP is ensuring neither sustainable agriculture nor decent incomes for all farmers. Undoubtedly, tough negotiations lie ahead on this front, including with Hollande. Second, young people must be a top priority. Our responsibility here is twofold: to put growth back on track, but also to respond immediately to the human tragedy that has hit our youth.
We need an immediate contingency plan: invest to finance job training, improve educational opportunities, and, crucially, create incentives for employers to hire young people. The ECB has been offering long-term loans to banks at a favorable rate. The EU also needs common initiatives to replace piece-meal bilateral agreements on tax evasion and tax havens, which undermine the goal of a fair society.
If we are serious about a master plan for growth, we need to provide the necessary means. The EU budget is an investment vehicle that boosts economic growth and creates jobs. It finances crucial pan-EU transport and energy links. It helps to foster innovation and boost research and development.
The EU budget leverages investment, allows for economies of scale, and cannot run a deficit. We cannot let this continue. But let us be optimistic. It is not too late. Europe can still emerge stronger from its current economic woes. Martin Schulz is President of the European Parliament.
They seem to be poised to disrupt Europe once again. The next day, candidates who advocated backtracking on European integration captured one-third of the vote in the first round of the French presidential election. These are the first skirmishes in a highly significant debate for Europe. The debate revolves around two major issues: austerity and integration. Start with austerity. The question here is not whether deficits should be reduced. They must be, given the dire state of European public finances, and also because the countries whose competitiveness deteriorated during the first decade of monetary union must tighten fiscal policy in order to deliver the necessary adjustment of wages and prices.
Germany, the arch-advocate of austerity, is right on this point. The problem is that austerity has perverse effects. Private and public deleveraging can hardly take place at the same time, unless trade partners generate demand for exports.
Recession and price deflation reduce tax receipts and worsen the dynamics of public debt, threatening the return to sustainability. Moreover, deficit targets lead governments to respond to recessions by doubling down on austerity, generally without much regard for the adverse supply-side effects. So there is a need to approach austerity and rebalancing strategically.
And here, the EU has made three mistakes. First, finance ministers tried to reassure markets last October by demonstrating toughness and endorsing headline, instead of cyclically adjusted, deficit targets. This may be justified for a country on the verge of losing access to capital markets, but not for a country with relatively low debt and a moderate deficit. Ministers should change course and revert to their original commitment, which was to plan consolidation efforts and adhere to them through fluctuations and shocks.
Second, the eurozone still shies away from a comprehensive approach to its internal rebalancing. Price competitiveness is a relative concept, not an absolute value, yet the policy discussion still ignores this basic fact. The wider the gap between the two, the sooner the rebalancing will be achieved. It is time to say loud and clear that the ECB will fight hard to keep aver- age inflation on target, and that northern Europe — especially Germany — will not attempt to counter higher domestic inflation as long as price stability is maintained in the eurozone as a whole.
This would help significantly in mapping out a sensible rebalancing strategy. The third mistake is one of omission: as ECB President Mario Draghi recently said, Europe has a fiscal compact, but lacks a growth compact. To be sure, there are no quick fixes: headline-grabbing initiatives often fail to measure up to the challenge of reviving growth. A credible growth compact would help to overcome immediate hurdles. After all, the post-war Marshall Plan was so successful not because of its size, but because it helped to counteract zero-sum games and self-fulfilling pessimism.
That is a lesson to keep in mind today. But austerity is not the only dimension of the debate. Developments over the last two years have exposed the weaknesses of a bare-bones monetary union based only on a single monetary policy and fiscal discipline.
While reforms enacted in the wake of the Greek crisis have equipped the eurozone with crisis-management capabilities, more is needed to restore confidence, ensure financial stability, and ward off financial fragmentation. A key characteristic of the European crisis has been the strong correlation between banking stress and sovereign distress. The recent reemergence of concerns about Spain has shown that the problem has not gone away. Either one involves risk-sharing among eurozone members.
In France, the Netherlands, and elsewhere, many citizens view Europe as a threat to their way of life. Telling them that the euro is an unfinished construct that requires even more commitment is a hard call for politicians. The question for the coming months is whether European leaders will have enough political capital to embark on further reforms and make the case for them to angry publics.
If not, it is to be feared that they will agree only on platitudes and hope for the best. The International Monetary Fund is now forecasting a surplus of just 2. At the same time, the exchange rate is by no means the most pressing macroeconomic problem facing China today. Investment constitutes almost half of GDP, more than twice the global average. First, the cost of raw-material imports has risen sharply. A second important factor has been slow growth in the advanced economies, a byproduct of the financial crisis that is likely to persist for some time to come.
Finally, China engaged in massive investment stimulus as a response to the financial crisis. All of this underscores the point that there is no monotonic relationship between the exchange rate and the current account. Capital-flow pressures, for example, can exert strong pressures of their own on exchange rates, independently of trade. China has very strong capital controls, but they are far from impervious.
With the prospect of modest rates of return in advanced economies, China has inevitably become a more attractive investment destination, despite a significant risk that China will someday experience its own sharp slowdown and financial crisis. The real case for China moving to a more flexible exchange rate is that in any kind of crisis — economic, political, or otherwise — the exchange rate can provide an important stabilizer. Even if the renminbi appreciated in the near term, the effect on trade would probably be far less than American authorities wish and Chinese authorities fear.
Studies on exchange rate pass-through suggest that US consumers would only see a small fraction of the cost change. The simplistic logic often used to link the exchange rate and the current account is weak. One narrative features a robust German economy with low unemployment, strong finances, and the right competitive position to exploit the most dynamic segments of global demand.
Both narratives are understandable. But they cannot co-exist forever. After all, it is difficult to be a good house in a deteriorating neighborhood. Either the neighborhood improves, or the value of the house declines.
And it matters a great deal which narrative prevails — for Germany, for Europe, and for the global economy. Germany today is reaping the benefits of many years of responsible domestic economic management. In addition to maintaining sound public finances, German leaders implemented difficult structural reforms aimed at improving international competitiveness, including painful labor-market reforms.
As a result, Germany is one of the few advanced economies today that has created many jobs and maintained financial stability. Yet Germany is also part of a highly challenged neighborhood, if not its anchor. They have high overall unemployment and alarmingly high youth joblessness , and are unable to grow on their own power. In some cases, they also face solvency questions, and are far from achieving the socio-political consensus needed to get their economic houses in order.
To state the obvious, this contrast between Germany and its neighborhood is very awkward. It fuels endless internal and external tensions, encourages finger pointing, and promotes a loud and disruptive blame game. And all of this distracts attention from the need to compete in a rapidly changing global economy. The longer all of this persists, the more it tears at the fabric of European unity. None of these steps is easy; and they are certainly not automatic. Moreover, to maximize their effectiveness, they must be implemented simultaneously; indeed, this is a situation in which one plus one plus one equals more than three.
And this will not happen unless two other, even more controversial steps are taken. I know that many Germans are uncomfortable with this. The European Central Bank does not possess the proper structural policy tools, and it has already been forced to bear burdens that, arguably, are beyond its strictly defined mandate. And there is no other economy that comes close to Germany in size, influence, and economic and financial health.
Second, the eurozone, led by a Germany that is working closely with France, needs to clarify decisively what it intends to look like in the medium term. There are two alternatives, both sensitive and controversial, and the choice is for Europeans alone to make and sustain; but they must make it if they are decisively to put behind them the risk of euro- zone fragmentation. On one hand, they can decide to let politics dominate economics. This is not easy for politicians to sell, especially in the core countries particularly Germany, Finland, and the Netherlands , as it would involve large multi-year subsidies to the periphery — or the analytical equivalent of the difficult decision made over 20 years ago to reunify Germany at a currency parity.
Here, however, there is the added difficulty of a potential conflict between regional politics and national democratic processes. On the other hand, they can decide to allow economics to prevail. Here, eurozone members would collectively opt for a smaller and less imperfect union that includes countries with more similar initial conditions — economically, financially, politically, and socially.
And, again, there is no easy way to do this, especially given that the eurozone was intentionally designed with no exit in mind. Until these difficult and controversial decisions are made, periods of relative tranquility in Europe are likely to be interrupted by the recurrent eruption of financial instability and bouts of political bickering and dithering. Ultimately, there can be no strong Germany without a stable eurozone; no stable eurozone without a strong Germany; and no global economic stability without both.
It is time for Europeans to make the difficult longer-term choices that are critical to sustaining and enhancing their historical regional project. Mohamed A. Throughout the crisis, as business confidence evaporated, banks were forced to sell assets and cut lending in order to maintain capital requirements stipulated by the Accords. This lending squeeze resulted in a sharp drop in GDP and employment, while the sharp sell-off in assets ensured further declines.
My recent study with Jacopo Carmassi, Time to Set Banking Regulation Right, shows that by permitting excessive leverage and risktaking by large international banks — in some cases allowing banks to accumulate total liabilities up to 40, or even 50, times their equity capital — the Basel banking rules not only enabled, but, ironically, intensified the crisis.
After the crisis, world leaders and central bankers overhauled banking regulations, first and foremost by rectifying the Basel prudential rules. Indeed, more often than not, the banks that failed or had to be rescued in the wake of the financial crisis had solvency ratios higher than those of banks that remained standing without assistance.
Meanwhile, the opacity of capital indicators has made market discipline impossible to impose. Thus, large banks are likely to continue to hold too little capital and to take excessive risks, raising the prospect of renewed bouts of financial instability. In order to overcome these shortcomings in international banking regulations, three remedies are needed.
Second, new capital ratios with multiple and decreasing capital thresholds, which trigger increasingly intrusive corrective action, should serve as the basis for a new system of mandated supervisory action. Supervisors should be bound by a presumption that they will act.
They could argue that action is not necessary in a specific case, but they would have to do so publicly, thus becoming accountable for their inaction. In order to eradicate moral hazard, the system must have a resolution procedure to close banks when their capital falls below a minimum threshold.
These debentures should be designed to create a strong incentive for bank managers and shareholders to issue equity rather than suffer conversion. These three measures, if applied to all banks, would eliminate the need for special rules governing liquidity or funding which would remain open to supervisory review, but not to binding constraints. There would also be no need for special restrictions on banking activities and operations. The most remarkable feature of the policy deliberations on prudential banking rules so far has been their delegation to the Basel Committee of Banking Supervisors and the banks themselves, both of which have a vested interest in preserving the existing system.
Governments and parliaments have an obligation to launch a thorough review of the Basel rules, and to demand revisions that align them with the public interest. Financial leaders, from finance ministers to leaders of private financial institutions, reiterated the current mantra: the crisis countries have to get their houses in order, reduce their deficits, bring down their national debts, undertake structural reforms, and promote growth.
Confidence, it was repeatedly said, needs to be restored.
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