The high frequency data also provides ground for caution though. Look at q4 v q1 The data suggests hot money outflows in q4, and then huge inflows in q1 q1 was the quarter when Chinese reserve growth really popped up. While I have little doubt that there was a big increase in Chinese foreign asset growth in early , I suspect that the transition was a bit smoother than my data series implies — i.
I am missing some foreign asset growth in q4 , and my adjustments may overstate foreign asset growth in q1 That is just a hunch though. But that is very much a hunch. A plot of the gap between foreign asset growth and trade, interest income and FDI inflows — with the gap used a proxy for hot money — shows that inflows have leveled off, or perhaps even turned down recently. But they remain at a very elevated level. We will see.
And in the interim, do read Dr. I have in effect assumed that they match their liabilities with assets, and fx liabilities with the central bank are held offshore. This line item jumped in early , just after the first round of Huijin recapitalizations. This data series has not been updated for This line item fell in the first part of , when reserve growth suddenly accelerated, and then moved up in late when reserve growth slowed, relative to the trade surplus.
I have assumed that there were no additional changes. Stephen Green , Wang Tao and Logan Wright have all argued that there is a close correspondence between the rise in this line item and the rise in bank reserve requirements likely held in foreign exchange. This data is current through April. We know, for example, that private Chinese investors likely the state banks bought a lot of foreign debt in see Qing Wang. In , private Chinese investors again, likely the state banks increased their deposits in the international banking system.
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