Quadrella betting calculator download
It set me thinking. How much is too much when it comes to sitting down with a formguide and going through the various races? Is there a point where you can simply strain your brain too much? I guess it depends on individual personality. Some people I know seem to have been born with the ability to study for long stretches at a time. Others I know get bored or restless after five minutes of just reading a newspaper or a book, let alone studying a formguide and making decisions.
Sometimes I can spend anything from an hour to three hours on one race. It all takes time. Take a simple m race. That might be for just one horse! Much depends on the approach you use. A friend who usually does well at the racing caper tells me he quickly picks out one race on the card and concentrates his attention on it.
Twenty minutes is his average time to look at the form. Many others might scoff at such an approach. The US expert George Kaywood has spent some time reviewing the situation of different approaches, and time taken, and so on. I had to read it! In that section, Ainslie talks about the differences among different successful handicapping methods. Or the weekend player who, using just a few traditional handicapping factors, only bets a horse that won its last race. Or, likewise, in the same manner, the bettor who begins by eliminating any horse that won its last race.
That must be a sign that I am getting older, because by the time you are reading this it means we have wrapped up yet another racing year. Stealing the show, no doubt, has to be the wonder mare Black Caviar. One has to wonder slightly — is he just looking after the horse or is he now also looking after the unbeaten record? They all get beaten eventually, so I guess the day will come. The Cox Plate, of course, went to So You Think, who in any other year, without Black Caviar, would have been the standout all on his own.
He had a great year, and then was quickly whisked away from us, and has gone on to win overseas. It will be interesting to see where his path tracks from here. The Cup went back overseas last year with a very dominant win from Americain.
It will be interesting to see where he goes from here. Will he come back to defend his title that looks very likely after his first-up win in France? Can he do it? The emphatic nature of his Cup win has to stand him in good stead for a title defence. But back to that man Peter Moody. The statistics back up exactly what I David Hayes am saying. As I write, there is still a meeting or two to play out this season, but Moody has a strike rate of around 21 per cent. As I write, Moody leads by around about 60 winners from Mark Kavanagh.
Continuing on the impressive list of achievements by Moody, he has also cracked the winners mark this season, a feat previously achieved by Freedman and Hayes. Black Caviar has obviously helped him take that title! Plenty of trainers want to shoot for the stars pretty quickly with their horses. Some pull it off, others simply find themselves going around to make up the numbers.
Plenty of time to ensure she was in peak condition when any injuries started to niggle, and plenty of time to progress through the classes before sweeping all before her in her most recent campaign. Roll on the Peter P. Moody Express. Dasoudi put in a game run to finish second behind Veyron in the Easter Hcp at Ellerslie. A suitable target appears to be the Group 1 Guineas to be contested at Caulfield on October Enjoy the spring carnival and best wishes for your punting!
What happens here is, they go and fail over the longer distance, which was perceived to be more suitable, sometimes at very short odds, and then come back in distance and win at longer odds! The relevant pace of each race, and the length of finishing sprint the horse is capable of are the factors that are playing out here.
Understanding the pace of races, and finishing sprints is a whole different topic, however! The other form factor that I think complements the distance variation for your selection is the number of days since its last run. If you have a horse coming back sharply in distance from one week to the next, it may be less likely to handle it than a horse that may have had two or three weeks between runs as a small freshen up.
This comes back to the logic theory of horses not being machines. As I write this piece, the meeting at Caulfield on July 30 provided a race that shows just how volatile distance variations can be. I speak of the m 3yo event. The betting was dominated by Snitza and Lopov. Interestingly, most of the field, including these two that headed the betting, faced stiff rises in distance. Snitza started favourite following a very strong last start win over m.
The race on July 30 was run over m. Lopov faced a distance rise of about m into the race. Most of the field were rising a similar amount of distance to Snitza. To my way of thinking, this race could have been a recipe for disaster where a longshot result was likely due to the fact that the market had no true way of understanding the optimum distance range for a lot of the runners.
The punters were prepared to leave Snitza at the top of the market with Lopov second pick. Lopov was a big question mark in my opinion due to such a sharp P. As the race turned out on July 30, Lopov recorded an easy win, running the distance right out, while Snitza was unable to run a place, and its form from its easy last start win was seemingly out the window. The point of this example was to highlight that punters were more than happy to accept significant distance increases for the two favourites, yet had they been distance decreases I wonder whether the market would have been less accommodating?
So, weighing everything up that we have looked at, what recommendations can be made overall when it comes to distances? I think the various figures explored here prove that beyond doubt. Secondly, be more wary of a horse increasing in distance than those decreasing. When an increase is faced, check whether the distance the horse is increasing to is one that it has been successful over, or at least run well over in the past.
Without a proven record, your guess as to whether it will handle it is just that, a guess. An extraordinary horse had passed before his eyes and the groundswell of emotion within him and around him left him agog that I could have considered anything else in the race. He knew that this would be no ordinary horse race, because it contained an unbelievable superstar. Some of you may remember me talking about Pete. My best friend since childhood, Pete ended up residing in Paris, aged 21, while I lived in London at the same age.
He went to a classy Parisian business school while I shuffled into a merchant bank to rub shoulders with the mightiest egos in town. We never had a dull moment — apart from the hangovers, of course — and it was Pete who discovered with me the delight of pronouncing my family name in the way that any Frenchman would; giving us more fun than a box of Mexican jumping beans. Oh the irony. Oh the mirth. When we found this out we laughed so hard we could not breathe.
But I digress. Frankel was the issue. Pete, unbeknownst to me, had Eurostar-ed from Paris, deposited his luggage at his London flat and had then loafed down to the South Downs in Sussex to watch Frankel cross swords with another star miler in the shape of Canford Cliffs.
Canford Cliffs was a fivetime Group 1 winner up against the talk of the town in Frankel, and my little mucker, Pete, was to stand as witness. Sadly, my blog foolishly chose the speedier pedigree of Canford Cliffs to drive my Sussex stakes selection, rather than the obvious towering class of Frankel. Most of the rest of the world was with Frankel.
Nevertheless, texting me his whereabouts from the saloon bar at Goodwood, Pete crowed at me from his high spot on my beloved South Downs. I slumped back in surprise on my West Australian sofa and smiled wryly amidst my mild cloud of jealousy. Petey-Boy was at Glorious Gooders!
Curse him. They went down to post. They returned. Frankel mauled them. I was overjoyed by Frankel. A truly incredible feat. It would have felt a bit like opposing Dessie. Can it be any better than this? Based on his last two runs you would expect he is still on the improve. It can be dangerous to assess a horse on form for the spring at this stage, and he was rock hard fit, but he looks the part. Won a mediocre affair at Randwick but did win with ridiculous ease.
She had a good placing in the Brisbane winter before this and can be relied on to try her heart out. At her first run this time in, she was well settled and then just too good where it counted. This is surely just the start of a great new season for her. Somehow just missed at Flemington and then the rider withdrew a protest. Surely close to another city win and Craig Williams suits.
He won with a leg in the air at Flemington recently and showed his true worth. Has a nice combination of breeding lines and might very well go on with things. Should handle the really wet too. Carried the topweight here. Just a joke really, treating her rivals with utter contempt. The son of West Quest has been a quality galloper from day one, putting together an impressive record of seven wins from 22 starts.
Hopefully you can read this in time for the resuming run because he really is a gun 1stup galloper. If not keep him in your sights anyway. Won out to m last prep. He put in a sub-par run in mid-July was slow out and not punished late by McCoull but bounced back with a big win when taken back to Hobart on July That made it two wins from four starts and there are more victories coming.
Evidently wet tracks pose no problem. After a neat 5th on debut when missing the kick, she returned to Launceston 21 days later and was closing in very strongly against her fellow 3yos. The dash she has shown at the end of both those starts will ensure she finds her first win before too long. Has registered two all-the-way wins at Launceston recently and he should be very competitive in better class over the same journey. Presumably he still has plenty of improvement being a 4yo with only seven overall starts to his name.
Perfectly named for numerous puns. She jumped OK but was quick to drift back and settled a clear last giving the front runner about 12 lengths. The daughter of West Quest then hooked out wide in the straight and kept finding that line to be beaten only three lengths. The education will have done her good. Follow up. To illustrate that point, at Launceston on August 7, she drew the rail and after trailing up on the inside she got an absolute dream run through as they straightened.
She took the lead but the winner collared her right on the line. No excuses there but it proved she is nearly always hard to beat when given her chance. She is from 12 starts when drawing five or better, from 15 when drawn worse. Bet accordingly. In the first place, he advised you to bring your money and leave your credit and debit cards at home. I was at the track in September, , with Ian and perhaps the best newspaper selector in Australian racing over the past 30 years, John Michael.
I have no reason to change my views now. The second piece of advice was to ignore all tips at the racetrack. The next piece of advice was to be very careful with the early markets: once again, you can be misled here. This extends way past racing and into virtually all sports. Watch out for situations where, say, the second or third emergency is very strongly fancied in the market. The likelihood is that it will not get a run, and consequently anything else that is supported in that particular field will suffer from massive deductions.
Ironically, eight or nine times out of every 10, what happens is that the horse you have supported eventually opens in the final market at better odds than you have now accepted. Now that has to be a totally ridiculous state of affairs! If looking for a bit of value look for runners for second and third whose form figures total between 16 and Very poor runners are those whose form figures total more than Line the place percentages up in order.
For the win: Runners with a place ranking of one to six account for nearly 75 per cent of all winners. For second: Runners with a place ranking of one to seven account for 78 per cent of all second placegetters. For third: Runners with a place ranking of one to eight account for 81 per cent of all third placegetters. Runners whose form figures show improvement for example are superior to runners whose form figures are worsening, like Runners whose form figures show continued improvement have double the chance of winning of runners whose form figures show a consistent decline.
Include as standouts runners that have some improvement in their form figures over the last four starts and especially over the last two. Exclude runners that show a constant decline. You can also use form figures to decide if a race is a good trifecta race or not. Add up all the form figures for all the runners in a race. Divide the result by the number of starters. If the result is 23 points or more leave the race alone, it is a poor one and may be difficult for you to get the trifecta.
Now, these statistics are interesting. Don Scott was always quick to point out that traditional straight box bets were not, in the long run, a profitable way to bet the trifecta. A good friend of mine always bets trifectas and he has a simple approach. His usual bet is a 3x3xField. When these roughies bob up, the trifectas can be huge. The composition of fields is another variant that must be dealt with. But apart from a big event with a huge pool making it a lottery type of investment, anyway to suggest that your four or more horses all have the same chance is often ridiculous.
One combination in 24 can win not will, but merely can and one in 60 can win when selecting five boxed horses; one in for six and one in for seven boxed selections. DJ: Absolutely.
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